Tracking the Tropics: Chances are
CAPE CORAL, Fla. - The broad area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean has become better organized over the past couple of days and now has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
The upper-level wind shear is low and favorable for some development, but mid-level dry air and land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico could hamper tropical cyclone formation. This system has a medium chance (50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
The tropical wave over the eastern Bay of Campeche continues to move to the west at 5-10 mph with some potential for development as it moves over warm water and encounters less wind shear. There is a medium chance (20%) of it becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.