Tracking the Tropics: Watching the central Caribbean

FOX 4 Storm Patrol

Tracking the Tropics: Watching the central Caribbean

CREATED Aug. 12, 2013

CAPE CORAL, Fla. - Much of the tropics remains quiet today, but there is one area of interest developing in the central Caribbean.

A tropical wave and broad area of low pressure south of Hispaniola has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

There is a greater chance (30%) of strengthening over the next 5 day.

As this disturbance continues to move to the west towards the Yucatan Peninsula it will encounter a more favorable environment for strengthening.

The big question concerns the path this disturbance is likely to take; there are two favorable paths at this time.

The first takes it across the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche).

The second path will have a greater influence on our weather; the low pressure disturbance will move into the central Gulf of Mexico taking a path that would eventually lead to the Florida Panhandle.

If that is the case, we can expect more cloud cover and scattered rain for Thursday through Saturday.

FOX 4 Rising Meteorologist Jamie Kagol